China's exports surge, nine-month trade surplus heading toward a record

China's exports grew sharply in September, pushing the monthly trade surplus to its highest level since January 2025.

According to Chinese customs data, exports rose about 36.3 percent and imports rose about 31 percent compared to the same month last year. The export growth was the fastest since February, and the import growth the fastest since June. Both figures beat Reuters poll estimates of about 25.5 percent and 24.5 percent, respectively.

September's trade surplus rose to about $133.5 billion from about $119.1 billion in August. Exports to the United States jumped nearly 39.6 percent.

The surplus for January through September has reached nearly $938 billion, raising the likelihood that it will surpass last year's record of about $1.2 trillion.

Over the same nine months, exports of semiconductors rose about 108 percent, data processing equipment and parts rose about 54.6 percent, and vehicles rose about 54.3 percent. While exports have provided some support amid sluggish domestic consumption and investment, a slump in the property sector remains a challenge.

China has set a growth target of 4.5 to 5 percent for this year, but the International Monetary Fund has lowered its forecast to about 4.5 percent. The widening trade surplus risks fueling further tension with the United States and the European Union.